Is "clear and hold" enough?

"As the United States entered the fourth year of occupying Iraq, it had 130,000 troops battling a Sunni Arab insurgency. Based in a community that is no more than 20 percent of Iraq's population, the Sunni Arab insurgents cannot prevail militarily. But they cannot be readily be defeated either. The U.S. can clear insurgents out of Sunni cities, but it has insufficient forces to hold the territory. Pushed out of one area, the insurgents move to another and return when the Americans move on."
--Peter W. Galbraith, The End of Iraq


But how can security forces protect Iraqi citizens from suicide bombers?

‘ “We need more security forces to protect us,” a shopkeeper who would identify himself only as Ali said in the aftermath of an attack in the Sadr City section of Baghdad.

The persistent violence in Mosul and Nineveh underscores the broader turmoil afflicting Iraq. But it also reflects the region’s unique mixture of insurgency and ethnic tensions between Kurds and Arabs, as well as a proliferation of criminal gangs, that makes the north the most dangerous part of the country.

That was supposed to change last spring, when 4,000 American troops joined more than 25,000 Iraqi security personnel to clean out Mosul’s neighborhoods one by one. Just as significantly, a Sunni Arab political bloc won in January’s provincial elections, giving the Arab citizens of the north proportional representation for the first time and, it was hoped, defusing antigovernment sentiment and support for insurgents. It has not turned out that way.’

Israelis get 4 times as much water as Palestinians

Guess where the water comes from. I thought the inequities were bad in Gaza when Israeli settlers were there, but it seems the injustice continues in the West Bank. How sad.

The brave Arab resistance will do something about this. They are right around the corner, our brave resistance that fights for justice and self-destermination!

"The West Bank is home to an important regional water source.

According to a World Bank report published this year, Israel keeps 80% of water it drills from the mountain aquifer for Israeli citizens.

Palestinians get the leftovers. It is not enough."

Iraqi democracy comes with huge costs

It's not a perfect democracy and it must do much more to create a truly egalitarian society, but today's Iraq is more of a democracy than it was before 2003. The cost of democracy to Iraq has been huge, in terms of dollars and lives, and Iraq's Shi3a and Kurds continue to pay a heavy price for their freedom, even after US troops have withdrawn from Iraq's cities. Iraqi Sunni Arabs who fight the terrorists have also been attacked and murdered, many times with their wives and kids.

"In 2003, the United States ousted the last, and most brutal, of Iraq's Sunni Arab dictators. It smashed Iraq's army and then legally dissolved the Iraqi military, security services, and Ba'ath Party. The army and secret police were the institutions that had enabled Iraq's Sunni Arab minority to rule for eighty years. With these repressive institutions gone, Iraq's Shiite majority took power through democratic elections in 2005 and asserted sectarian control over key institutions, including police. In the constitutional negotiations in August 2005, the Kurds consolidated the independence they always wanted. The Sunni Arabs resented bitterly their loss of historic hegemony and violently resisted a Shiite-dominated new order. Civil war was always a possible, if not likely, outcome. The only remarkable thing is that it caught the Bush Administration by surprise."
--Peter W. Galbraith, The End of Iraq

Surge shoulda happened in 2003

It is said that hindsight is 20/20, and although I appreciate Mr. Powell's acknowledgement of the mistakes made in Iraq, it still hurts to think that the deaths of many Iraqis could have been prevented. Imagine what the outcome of invasion would have been if the US had sent as many troops as were sent in 1991.

Powell says Iraq surge should have come earlier

WASHINGTON (AP) — Colin Powell says the U.S. took too long to strengthen its forces in Iraq after Baghdad fell early in the war.

Powell, the nation's top military officer under President George H.W. Bush and secretary of state for President George W. Bush, said the decision to use a lighter force to defeat the Iraqi army was correct. But he said in a television interview broadcast Sunday that the younger Bush's administration should have realized the initial success in 2003 was only the start of a longer fight.

"Unfortunately, the war wasn't over" after Baghdad fell and Saddam Hussein was ousted, Powell said. "The war was just beginning. And then it took us, in my judgment, too long to recognize that we needed to put more force in.

"I think we would have been in a much different place if we had surged in the fall of 2003, rather than many years later," he said on "State of the Union," on CNN.

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Saudi Shia Stand Up

Somehow I missed this article published in March: "Saudi Arabia’s Shia Stand Up"

"On February 24, violent confrontations between Shia pilgrims and the Saudi religious police and security forces occurred at the entrance to the Prophet Mohamed's Mosque in Medina. The timing and location of the clashes may have serious repercussions for domestic security, if not for the regime itself.

Some 2,000 Shia pilgrims gathered near the mosque that houses the Prophet's tomb for the commemoration of Mohamed's death, an act of worship that the ruling Saudi Wahhabi sect considers heretical and idolatrous. Thus, the Mutawa'ah, the religious police of the Committee for the Preservation of Virtue and the Prohibition of Vice, armed with sticks and backed by police firing into the air, tried to disperse the pilgrims. The pilgrims resisted. Three pilgrims died and hundreds were injured in the ensuing stampede. A large number of pilgrims remain in detention, among them 15 teenage boys.

Soon after, representatives of Saudi Arabia's Shia community sought a meeting with King Abdullah in an effort to free the detainees. Dialogue seemed like a promising strategy: just ten days earlier, Abdullah had announced a promising reform agenda for the country. But the King refused to meet the Shia delegation.

...So far, King Abdullah has shown no sign of opting for a policy of inclusion - not even a token gesture, such as a Shia minister. Moreover, Abdullah is unable even to stop Wahhabi satellite TV stations from denouncing the Shia "heretics," or the hundreds of Wahhabi Web sites that call for the outright elimination of the Shia."

Read the entire article. It's a good one. Thanks Ustath As3ad for posting.

Iraqi Oil: the stakes are high

'The Iraqi government offered a profit margin of $1.90 per barrel at the West Qurna field. Total ended up bidding without Chevron and asked for a profit margin of $7.50 per barrel. Spanish oil company Repsol also submitted a bid and wanted $19.30 per barrel. No one got the job.

"Maybe there's a little bit of a learning curve on both sides about what's realistic," said Amy Myers Jaffe, an energy research fellow at Rice University's Baker Institute. "Instead of looking at it as a failed tender, people should look at it as the beginning of a negotiation."

The stakes on both sides are high.

Iraq has the world's third-largest reserves of oil - 115 billion barrels. Petroleum exports supply 86 percent of the government's revenue, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. But Iraq's state-run oil industry has suffered from years of war, international sanctions and insurgent sabotage.

Before the American-led invasion toppled Saddam Hussein in 2003, the country pumped about 2.8 million barrels per day. Now it's 2.4 million. The Iraqi government wants to expand production, hitting 6 million barrels a day within 10 years. But it will probably need foreign investment and expertise to reach that goal.

For international oil companies, Iraq could be a bonanza. But the country remains unstable, with a fractious government and a simmering insurgency. And the politics surrounding its oil reserves are a minefield.'

US Special Forces have built a powerful force in Iraq

What's wrong with killing bad guys?

'The Iraq Special Operations Forces (ISOF) is probably the largest special forces outfit ever built by the United States, and it is free of many of the controls that most governments employ to rein in such lethal forces. The project started in the deserts of Jordan just after the Americans took Baghdad in April 2003. There, the US Army's Special Forces, or Green Berets, trained mostly 18-year-old Iraqis with no prior military experience. The resulting brigade was a Green Beret's dream come true: a deadly, elite, covert unit, fully fitted with American equipment, that would operate for years under US command and be unaccountable to Iraqi ministries and the normal political process.

According to Congressional records, the ISOF has grown into nine battalions, which extend to four regional "commando bases" across Iraq. By December, each will be complete with its own "intelligence infusion cell," which will operate independently of Iraq's other intelligence networks. The ISOF is at least 4,564 operatives strong, making it approximately the size of the US Army's own Special Forces in Iraq. Congressional records indicate that there are plans to double the ISOF over the next "several years."

According to retired Lt. Col. Roger Carstens, US Special Forces are "building the most powerful force in the region." In 2008 Carstens, then a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, was an adviser to the Iraqi National Counter-Terror Force, where he helped set up the Iraqi counterterrorism laws that govern the ISOF.

"All these guys want to do is go out and kill bad guys all day," he says, laughing. "These guys are shit hot. They are just as good as we are. We trained 'em. They are just like us. They use the same weapons. They walk like Americans."

..."The standards get looser when the Americans aren't with [the local special forces], and they can eventually become death squads, which I believe actually happened in Colombia," says Mark Bowden, author of Black Hawk Down and Killing Pablo, a book about the hunt for Colombian drug lord Pablo Escobar by CIA and US Special Forces. The tactics taught in each country are the same, Bowden says. "They teach the same kind of skills. They use the same equipment." '

Iraqis celebrate US withdrawal from cities

It was a day of parades and celebrations in Baghdad, as US forces withdrew from Iraqi cities, but they will remain nearby to support Iraq's security forces.

“The Iraqi people are rightly treating this day as cause for celebration," President Obama said.

Maliki is hailing the US withdrawal as a victory and declared today a national holiday, but I think Maliki and Obama realize that the US will stay in Iraq for years to come.

As Americans withdrew from the cities and Iraqis celebrated, a bombing in Kirkuk has killed dozens of Iraqis. Yesterday 4 US soldiers and 11 Iraqis were killed. Around 350* Iraqis have been killed this month and many more wounded in bombings.

I heard a reporter on BBC World Service today remark on how resilient the Iraqi people have been in the face of these bombings, and wondered how many bombings the Iraqis will withstand before militias launch revenge attacks. The Iraqi Shia withstood two years of bombings before militias began rounding up ordinary Sunni Arab men and killing them. I hope the Iraqis do not allow their enemies to ignite another sectarian war.

Also today Nibras Kazimi reports from Baghdad on his interview with Aljazeera Satellite Channel, who managed to get a representative of the 'Islamic Army in Iraq' on the line. "Anyway, I thought it was funny that I was openly speaking from Baghdad, from Abu Nawwas Street, while the mouth organs for the 'resistance' were in exile or in hiding," Nibras writes.

*Update: 437 Iraqis were killed in June, the highest monthly civilian death toll since July, 2008.

There was no Al Qaeda in 1991

I just read the below review of Richard Haass's new book by a Geoffrey Wheatcroft, who suggests that the violence seen in Iraq since 2003 would have happened in 1991 if US troops had entered Baghdad and overthrown Saddam's murderous regime. How does he know this? There was no Al Qaeda in 1991. In fact Usama bin Ladin volunteered to assemble an army of mujahideen to fight Saddam's forces. There would have been no sectarian conflict ignited by the Wahhabi scum. There were no Fedayeen Saddam either. Liberating Iraq would have been much easier in 1991. Easier for the US and its allies and much easier for Iraqis.

'Much of the ground Haass covers is all too familiar by now. He goes over the arguments that America should have pressed on to “liberate Iraq” and destroy Hussein the first time round. As he says, the truth is that “there was no interest in going to Baghdad.” Bush the Elder thought he had a deal with the rest of the world that he would break if he extended the war; American troops would have found themselves engaged in dangerous and difficult fighting in cities; and “we would have become an occupying force in a hostile land with no exit strategy.” It would be superfluous for Haass to add “as later happened under that president’s son.” '

I am amazed by the number of "pundits" who think they know what they're writing about.

"Gonna make a difference..."

To the King of Pop, who did make a difference.

Michael Jackson, 1958 - 2009

Oil accounts for 86% of Iraqi govt revenues

"The revival and rehabilitation of Iraqi oil production has been one of the main planks of U.S. policy since the 2003 overthrow of Saddam Hussein. The slowness of the recovery reflects both the post-invasion chaos in the country and the lack of investment and inconsistent policies during the Saddam era. The drawdown of U.S. forces and smaller local expenditures have affected Baghdad's budget, forcing a decision on foreign investment in the energy sector, which accounts for 75 percent of GDP and a staggering 86 percent of government revenues. One of the consequences of the provincial elections earlier this year was to move the political debate forward -- successful candidates tended to be less sectarian and more aware of local issues. Prime Minister al-Maliki needs to use this momentum to push through the new oil policy.

Nationally, the development of Iraq's oil touches on the vexing issues of Saddam's preferential treatment of the western Sunni Arab provinces at the expense of the southern Shiite provinces and the northern Kurdish areas. This tension is exacerbated by the location of the oil, mainly in the south and north rather than the west, and a Shiite and Kurdish desire to be compensated for past injustices."

Syria Cooperating with US & Iraq

For economic reasons, of course.

Syria And Iraq Revive Business Ties

by Deborah Amos

All Things Considered, June 24, 2009 · Syria's border with Iraq has long been a line of tension. The U.S. and the Iraqi government have accused Syria of allowing foreign fighters to cross into Iraq. But these days, the border is a potential business asset, as Syria looks to Iraq to help improve its economy.

This month, a new freight rail line opened between Syria's port cities of Tartous and Latakia on the Mediterranean, and Iraq's port city of Basra on the Persian Gulf. The first freight cars, loaded with automobiles from Europe, ended up in the Baghdad market. Syria offers a faster and cheaper route than the traditional transit through the Suez Canal.

The new railway is a sign that Damascus and Baghdad are eager to revive business ties, says Samir Seifan, a Syrian economist.

"The atmosphere is getting better and [more] positive. The two sides [understand] that they should work together," Seifan says.

He notes that Iraq is a booming market for products that Syria exports. It's a partnership based on economic necessity: Syria is running out of oil — production is down by 30 percent — and for the first time, the national budget is in deficit.

continued

Saudi Royals Supported Al Qaeda

Is anybody surprised?

'Documents obtained by The New York Times suggest members of the Saudi royal family may have provided financial support to extremists, including al-Qaida, in the run-up to the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. The documents are part of an ongoing legal effort by Sept. 11 families to hold Saudi Arabia and the royal family accountable for the attacks. New York Times reporter Eric Lichtblau offers his insight.'

Iraqi lives worth less

As the the death toll in Iran reaches into the dozens and outrages American leaders, the "resistance" in Iraq and other jarab continue to mass murder Iraqis in the numbers we have become accustomed to seeing there, without the outrage expressed by the President. It's as if Iraqi lives are worth less than Iranian lives. It reminds me of the comment by Madeline Albright, about the sanctions being worth the price. Iraqis have always been expendable, especially to the 3arab jarab.

'Dozens dead' in Baghdad bombing

At least 60 people have been killed by a bomb blast in the eastern Sadr City area of Baghdad, say officials.

Iraqi police said the bomb went off in a market place in the predominantly Shia area of the Iraqi capital.

More than 130 people were also reported to have been injured in the blast, one of the worst in Iraq this year.

It comes less than a week before US soldiers pull out of all Iraqi cities in advance of a complete withdrawal by the end of 2011.

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The Hurt Locker

I am planning to see The Hurt Locker, which proves that the US military has been essential in preventing bombings in Iraq at great risk to themselves.

'The Iraq war has been dramatized on film many times, and those films have been ignored just as many times by theatre audiences. But Kathryn Bigelow’s “The Hurt Locker” is the most skillful and emotionally involving picture yet made about the conflict. The film, from a script by Mark Boal, has a new subject: the heroism of the men who defuse improvised explosive devices, sloppily made but lethal bombs planted under a bag or a pile of garbage or just beneath the dirt of a Baghdad street.'

PS: It kinda sucks (for me) that the movie was made in Jordan rather than Iraq. More irony & hypocrisy for ya.

Are Iraqi Security Forces Ready?

Recently I've read a few articles whose authors wonder if Iraq's security forces are ready to take over after the US military withdraws from Iraqi cities at the end of this month, but I wonder if the US military really has been able to prevent overall violence in the country, even with brave men who defuse bombs. Americans cannot prevent suicide bombings - I believe that only Arab Muslims can infiltrate the groups responsible for recruiting suicide bombers and end their existence.

Iraq: forgotten and in trouble?

Saturday's massive bomb in Kirkuk, combined with political gridlock, raises questions about how ready Iraq is for the withdrawal of US troops from cities by June 30.

By Howard LaFranchi | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor

from the June 23, 2009 edition

WASHINGTON - Fresh concerns about the US-Iraq relationship are rising as the draw-down of US forces approaches. A suicide bombing in Kirkuk Saturday was the deadliest in Iraq in more than a year. Meanwhile, the Iraqi government continues to fail to approve crucial laws for administering the country.

With the 133,000 US troops in the country set to be withdrawn from Iraqi cities by June 30, demands on the diplomatic relationship between the two countries will only grow, some Iraq specialists warn.

Going further still, some of them worry that Iraq will be neglected as the US turns its focus to Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran. If that happens, Iraq could slip back into instability and violence, reemerging as a top American security issue.

"President Obama cannot afford to lose Iraq," says Kenneth Pollack, a Middle East expert at the Brookings Institution in Washington. "If nothing else, there's so much potential for spillover into Saudi Arabia, Syria, and elsewhere in the region."

continued

Why would Americans be worried about violence spilling into Saudi Arabia and Syria, considering that many suicide bombers have come from Saudi Arabia and Syria?